Blog: Heat Breaks Soon, But It Stays Humid. Tracking The Tropics…


Temperature/Heat Index

We have one more day of dangerous heat. Then we’ll have some better numbers for a few days. We ended up hitting the upper 90s over most of the region yesterday.

High Temps Yesterday

Today we will see similar numbers. It may be a degree or two higher. The heat indices will be between 100 and 110 degrees.

Heat Index Forecast

So there is a Heat Advisory in effect again for the region until 8pm. High pressure is to our southeast. There is a cool front slowly moving into West Virginia.

Regional Weather Map

We’ll be partly cloudy today with some isolated showers and storms popping up this afternoon. Some models have scattered thunderstorms moving in from the west this evening. I definitely think that’s possible.

Tomorrow the front will move in and stall out over the region. This should set us up for a very different day. We’ll be partly to mostly cloudy through the day. There will also be scattered showers and storms developing during the afternoon. So high temps will drop to the upper 80s to low 90s. Keep in mind that the humidity will still be up. So it will still feel like the mid-upper 90s with the heat index. Hey, that’s still better than 100+. Rain amounts will vary. Some will only see a tenth of an inch. Some could get over an inch.

After that, the front will meander around for a while between Thursday and Saturday. High temps will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. For now it looks like the front will sag south on Friday. This could drop the high temps to the mid 80s for a day with some lower humidity. However, there will be a higher chance for rain again that day (50%). So it may be tough to enjoy the cooler weather. The front should push back north as a warm front by Sunday. Stalled out fronts this time of year are notorious for busting forecasts. So if it stalls out or moves a little early, then we’ll be changing some of these numbers.

There is only one feature that we are watching in the tropics. For a couple of days a tropical disturbance steadily moved from the eastern Atlantic to the central Atlantic while Hanna and Gonzalo came and went. This current feature has been pretty disorganized over the past 24 hours. It is stretched out a bit this morning from east to west. It is generally moving west.

However, it is moving over some pretty warm water. There’s also not much shear nearby. So it is forecast to organize and strengthen. Whether it strengthens or not, the models generally take it to the west/northwest over the next 2-4 days. Many of them take it towards the Bahamas. After that there is a pretty big split.

Forecast Models

It looks like if it stays weaker, then it would travel more to the south. If it strengthens more, then it would probably pass more northward. Either way this thing could get fairly close to the US coast. The latest Euro and GFS models send it towards south Florida, but as a fairly weak system. Whatever it does we will watch it closely over the next few days. Check back for updates.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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