Blog: Heat And Strong Storms Today. Cooling Down This Weekend.


Temp & Heat Index

Yesterday was pretty nice out. We did have a lot of clouds in the morning, but the sun popped out in the afternoon. That warmed things up a bit. High temps made it into the upper 70s to low 80s, but the humidity wasn’t too bad. Today, however, we are going to become very hot and humid (for late May). We have a warm front that is slowly moving through the region. High pressure is offshore.

Regional Weather Map

We had some patchy fog this morning, but it burned off quickly. Then the strong sunshine started cooking the temps. We’ll be in the upper 80s by midday, and then we’ll top off in the low 90s this afternoon. The heat index will be in the mid 90s. Luckily there will be a decent breeze out of the southwest. It will run at 5-15mph.

The heat and humidity will create some strong instability this afternoon. Some scattered showers and storms will fire up between the mid-late afternoon, and they will continue into the early evening.

Future Trak (This Afternoon)

Some of these storms could be strong to severe. Most of the area is in a marginal risk. However, there is a slight risk (category 2 out of 5) for Middlesex County up to the Northern Neck.

Severe Risk (Afternoon and Evening)

Strong gusty winds will be the main threat. Hail and brief heavy rain will also be possible. There’s a slim chance for a tornado in the slight risk area.

We’ll quiet down overnight. Then tomorrow we’ll have high pressure in the region. The wind direction will change Thursday. It will be light and out of the northwest. This will drop temperatures slightly, but it will still be fairly hot and humid. We’ll be partly cloudy for most of the day. So high temps will get into the upper 80s with a couple of 90s inland. Dew points will be in the 60s.

Humidity Forecast

Some computer models keep the rain chances low for tomorrow (about 20%). Our model updated this morning, and now it brings in a sizable batch of showers and storms into our area.

Future Trak (Thursday Afternoon)

I’m hesitant to increase the rain chances yet for tomorrow, but I may have to bring it up to 30-40%. Hey…we need the rain. So some folks would probably love a heavy shower. If we don’t get it today or tomorrow, then we have a better chance for rain and storms Friday into Saturday. That’s when a cold front will move into the region. It will likely be a bigger area of rain as well. High temps will be in the low-mid 80s on Friday with low-mid 70s on Saturday. The front will stall out on Saturday, but it should drop to our south on Sunday. The front may sink very slowly though. So for now there is a chance for scattered showers Sunday morning through midday. However, the rain could linger for a bit longer. This is Memorial Day weekend, So hopefully, the rain moves out a little quicker (after we get some). Then Monday looks good. We’ll be partly cloudy with highs in the low 70s.

Ever heard of Von Karman clouds? I’ll admit…It’s been a long time since I’ve heard of them. They are swirling clouds that form along an obstruction in a stable atmosphere. I caught a cool article that has some recent satellite imagery from NASA showing the phenomenon. Here is the article: Von Karman clouds.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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