Blog: Feeling Like Summer. Rain Chances Increase Soon.


Temps And Heat Index

Today we have some more quiet weather in the region. High pressure is sitting to our northeast. There is a warm front to our south, and Cristobal is grinding down over the Midwest.

Regional Weather Map

There is a big cold front to the west of Cristobal. This is going to play a big part in the late-week forecast.

In the meantime, we are looking pretty good today. We’ll have partly sunny skies. Most of the clouds out there will be some high/thin passing cirrus clouds. We’ll have a light south wind. So high temps will rise to the upper 80s with some 90s inland. The humidity is climbing. Dew points have risen into the 60s, and there are even some 70s just to our south.

Regional Dew Points

Tomorrow the dew points and the temperatures will rise even more. We’ll have a stronger south wind as a warm front lifts up from the south. High temps will bump up to near 90, but the heat index will be in the mid-upper 90s. Luckily the breeze will help. A few of the gusts will be to 25mph. We’ll be partly cloudy. There will be some isolated showers and storms in the afternoon.

On Thursday we’ll have increasing clouds. That might keep the temps down slightly, but I still expect highs in the 80s with muggy conditions. There will be a line of showers and storms moving in later in the day. There will be some heavy rain in the line. the timing is a bit tricky, but the trend is pretty late in the day. If the rain doesn’t make it here by the late afternoon, then it will definitely make it here by the evening.

European Model (Thursday Afternoon)

The forecast gets tricky after that time. Some models have the front stalling out on top of us which would give us more rain and storms Friday into Saturday. The GFS does this, and it currently has the weekend as very wet. Some other models have the front stalling out a little more to our south. That would mean a wet forecast for the Outer Banks, but not as bad for Hampton Roads. It’s a small difference in distance, but it could mean a big difference in the forecast. So stay tuned for updates to the Friday-Sunday time frame.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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