Blog: Fall Temperatures Arrive For The Weekend!


Temperature Trend

Before I cover the current and future weather, I want to talk briefly about climate. Lately we have had some warm and wet conditions. September just finished above average for both temperatures and rainfall. We ended up with 7.63″ of rainfall in Norfolk. This was 2.87″ above the average. We are now up about 5″ for the year so far.

Local Rainfall Climatology

Norfolk also finished about 2.83 degrees above average for temperatures. There were many days in the 80s.

September High Temperatures

There were a couple of heavy rain and wind events during the last 40 days. I even had to deal with some leaks on my shed yesterday. That’s the first time I’ve dealt with that since I moved into my home a few years ago.

Today some cooler air has arrived. A cold front had already dropped to the south of Hatteras, but an upper level disturbance brought us lots of clouds and a few sprinkles to the entire region.

Regional Weather Map

The surface wind is breezy out of the north. It will run at 10-15mph today with gusts up to 20mph. Eventually the drier air will scour out the clouds. So we’ll become partly cloudy this afternoon. High temps will only be in the upper 60s with a couple of 70s to the south. Tonight we’ll have mostly clear skies and light north winds. Temps will drop to the 50s with some 40s inland. Tomorrow high pressure will build into the region. We’ll have lots of sunshine and a light north breeze. High temps will still only be in the upper 60s.

Tomorrow’s Forecast Temperatures

We’ll have increasing clouds on Sunday. It looks like some moisture pushes back to the north. So the models do have some rain in the region, but they disagree on how much moisture makes it into our area. The GFS model does have Hampton Roads on the edge of some rain with more coverage over the Outer Banks and northeast North Carolina.

GFS Model (Sunday Afternoon)

The Euro is about the same, but the NAM model has more rain. Stay tuned for updates on this over the weekend,

There are 2 tropical disturbances in the Caribbean. The one in the western Caribbean is getting more organized. It will likely become a tropical depression or storm later today.

Tropical Satellite

It is moving to the northwest. Whether it forms or not it will bring heavy rain and wind to the Yucatan Peninsula. It may survive and cross over into the Bay of Campeche. We’ll track it through the weekend. The other disturbance to the east is very weak and disorganized. It only has a low chance of formation in the next few days.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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