Blog: King tide coming this weekend, along with rain and wind

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Yesterday and last night we picked up about a tenth of an inch of rainfall. It wasn’t much, but it was a nice soaking rain. Plus every little bit helps with the long-term deficit. The rain moved out by the morning, and there was some clearing in some inland locations. In some inland/western areas the temperatures had fallen to the mid-upper 30s. It was around the freezing mark over by I-95.

Temps This Morning

Some clouds and a northern breeze kept the actual temperatures up a bit near the shore, but it still felt chilly with the north wind. High pressure is building into the region today. So we will have a good amount of sunshine.

Tower Cam This Morning
Regional Weather Map

We’ll be partly sunny through the day, but the north wind will keep it chilly into the afternoon. High temps will only be in the mid 50s. We’ll have a north wind at 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. We’ll have partly cloudy skies tonight, and we’ll stay dry. Winds will drop a bit. They will be out of the north at 5-10 mph. So temperatures will drop quite a bit. Overnight lows will be in the low 40s in the metro, but there will probably be some more 30s inland. It will probably still be in the 50s right near the shore.

This colder air inland could allow for some frost to form in areas that didn’t get it this morning. So you may want to bring in the potted plants if you are in a typically colder section of the area. I’m thinking Gloucester Courthouse, Chesapeake, Williamsburg, Franklin and Ahoskie to name a few.

Tomorrow we’ll have increasing clouds. There will be a few showers in the afternoon as low pressure strengthens to our south. There will be a higher chance for rain over North Carolina.

European Model (Saturday)

The wind will be breezy out of the northeast. It will run at 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. High temps will be in the upper 50s. There will be some minor tidal flooding today and tomorrow. It won’t be too bad during that time. This will be mainly for the lower Chesapeake Bay and Outer Banks.

Tide Forecast (Sewell’s Point)

However, on Sunday the wind, rain, and tides will all increase. The tidal flooding could be up to moderate levels over the southern Chesapeake Bay and Outer Banks. It shouldn’t be too bad on the northern Chesapeake Bay. It won’t be anything like the recent tidal flooding up there. However, there could be some ocean overwash over the Outer Banks this time. The king tide, an especially high tide due to astronomical conditions, is also happening this weekend. So that is adding to the effect.

Winds are forecast to run out of the northeast at about 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. There could be some gusts between 35-40 mph near the shore. There may even be a few gusts to 40mph on the Eastern Shore and Outer Banks for a brief time.

Wind Forecast (Sunday)

There will be a lot of rain along the coast. There should be less rain inland/west.

European Model (Sunday)

Keep in mind that the models have literally been going back and forth about how far west the rain gets on Sunday. The latest GFS is drier than the Euro.

GFS Model Sunday

The basic theme for Sunday is stronger winds and higher rain chances near the coast with lesser chances to the north and west. Here is the latest rainfall forecast from the Euro:

European Model Rainfall Forecast

The low will move out to sea by Sunday night. Then we’ll be dry and milder early next week.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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