It’s been some time since we’ve had a decent chance for thunderstorms. Especially a chance for severe weather. There were some coastal systems, and we’ve had some rain. But it’s been some time since we’ve had a severe risk. There is a risk for severe weather today, but it’s not huge.
There is a marginal risk (green area) for a large part of the region. This is the lowest category (1 out of 5) besides “general thunderstorms”. Then there is a also a slight risk for severe (level 2 out of 5) over most of northeast North Carolina up to part of the Southside. This is for the mid to late afternoon into the evening hours.
We have a warm front lifting up from the south, and a cold front to the west.
We’ll be in the more stable zone for the first half of the day. We’ll be mostly cloudy, cool, and a little drizzly. There may be some isolated showers up until noon. Temps won’t warm up too much until then, but during the afternoon we will warm up a bit. There will likely be some breaks in the clouds. So the sun (should) pop out a bit. The wind will pick up out of the southeast. This will pull up the warmer and more humid air. There are already some upper level winds. This will create some upper level support for storms. But storms need instability to form to push them up form the bottom. So the strength of today’s storms will greatly depend on 1. How much sun pops out. 2. How far north the warm front gets, and 3. How much the southeast winds increase. This is not an easy thing to figure out. For now I think the front will make it up to the northern edge of the slight risk area (give or take). However, the Weather Prediction Center has it going north of Hampton Roads. North of the front high temps will be in the 60s. South of the front highs will be in the low 70s with possibly some mid 70s over North Carolina. There will be some scattered showers and a few storms developing by the mid-afternoon.
A line of showers and storms will form off to our west during that time. That will be just east of the cold front. That feature will move through during the early-to-mid evening hours. This is when our chance for rain will go up. Also we could see our highest chance for strong gusty winds during that time.
The front will likely clear Hampton Roads by 10-11pm. Then we’ll dry out overnight.
Strong wind gusts will be the main threat today, but isolated tornadoes are not out of the questions. There’s a much lower chance for hail and flooding. Though we could see some brief heavy rain. I don’t think we are looking at too much rain overall. We could see about a quarter up to three quarters of an inch.
Tonight we’ll clear out with temps dropping mainly to the 50s. Then tomorrow we’ll have cool/dry air in place with lots of sunshine. It should be nice out with highs in the upper 60s and a northwest breeze. We’ll be dry for Thursday and Friday. Then rain will return on Saturday. This will be ahead of another cold front. The moisture looks pretty deep. So there may be some heavy rain. We’ll see. We’ll take a closer look at that once we get on the other side of today’s storms.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler