Blog: A Similar Day? And…Tracking The Tropics!

Weather Blog

Regional Weather Map

Yesterday evening we did get that line of showers and storms as forecast.

Storms Last Night

We picked up between a quarter of an inch up to a little more than an inch of rain over the region. So that was great! The line of showers dropped south down to the southern Outer Banks this morning. These storms weren’t accompanied by any big weather features. It was only a subtle wind-shift and a weak upper level trough.

Today, we’ll have a warm front lifting to our north. There is a cool front to the west that is slowly heading in our direction.

Regional Weather Map

We’ll be hot and humid today with high temps mainly in the low 90s. The heat index will climb to near 100. There will be a few showers and storms returning this afternoon, but they should be widely scattered. I’ve got the chance for rain at 30%. Then the chance will go up a little this evening to 40% as the front gets a bit closer. (That’s much less than yesterday evening).

Future Trak (This Evening)

Despite the front sinking in overnight, the weather should be fairly quiet. There may be a stray shower or two. The front will probably stall out for a time near the state line on Saturday. Unfortunately, that means that we could hold on to some isolated showers and storms from the late morning into the early afternoon.

I’m hoping they drop south through the afternoon as the front drops more south. We’ll have a northerly wind developing. So high temps will be more in the upper 80s tomorrow. The humidity will only drop slightly. Then we’ll be partly cloudy with highs near 90 on Sunday. We’ll have typical summertime weather next week. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s next week with humid conditions and the usual pop-up afternoon t’storms.

Now onto Barry: Tropical storm Barry had winds of around 50mph sustained this morning. It was less than 100 miles south/southwest of New Orleans.

Satellite/Radar (Gulf Of Mexico)

The system is slowly moving to the west/northwest. It is forecast to strengthen some more over the next 12 hours. It is expected to become a strong tropical storm or a minimal hurricane before landfall. That will happen late tonight or early tomorrow morning. Then it will move inland/north tomorrow, and will weaken.

Track Of Barry

The storm will then move into the Tennessee River Valley, and it should gradually fall apart. That will probably be Sunday into early next week.

While the wind may cause some damage down over coastal Louisiana, everyone is really worried about flooding. No matter what, the system is going to bring heavy rain to that area The latest European computer model shows over 20″ of rain for the central part of the state.

Rainfall Forecast (European Model)

This will cause flooding in itself. However, they have had ongoing flooding along the Mississippi river and its tributaries. This is from the very wet pattern that has been over the Midwest and Southern states over the past few months. Many down there are preparing for the flooding.

Last and least…there is also a weak disturbance in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean. It is moving slowly to the west. It has a low chance for formation over the next few days.

Weak Tropical Disturbance

We’ll track it over the weekend. Stay tuned for updates!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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