Some people love snow…. It reminds them of the good ole’ days of days off school, sledding (my favorite), and making snowmen. Some people hate snow…. They’ve had to work out in the freezing cold with snow making their body feel like an ice mannequin. Me? I love snow. But I hate forecasting for it in this area. It’s simply because the rain/snow line is a dreaded fiend that comes around several times a season. It will be a player in our weather Thursday through Saturday for sure. Let’s talk about it.

Today we won’t have any snow. High pressure is building in from the west. This has finally shut down the strong winds that have been here for the last couple of days.

Regional Weather Map

We’ll have a light west wind today at 5-15mph with high temps in the mid-upper 40s. Tomorrow will be very nice for this time of year. We’ll have fair skies and high temps in the 50s. There will be a southwest breeze.

Forecast Temps Tomorrow

By Thursday a strong cold front will very slowly sink its way through the region. We’ll start off with some cold rain showers in the later morning.

Future Trak (Thursday Morning)

Temps will be well above freezing. In fact we will probably be in the 40s from mid-morning through the early afternoon. As we go through the afternoon temperatures will fall and the wind will pick up out of the north.

Thursday Afternoon Forecast

So the rain showers will turn into a wintry mix. Then that mix will turn into some snow.

GFS Model Thursday Evening

Temperatures will likely be above freezing into the early evening and possibly even into the mid-evening hours. So a lot of the initial snow should melt. However, by the later evening temps should be cold enough for some of it to stick.

The GFS model tapers the snow off into Friday morning. However, the European model keeps it going for a while.

GFS Model Friday Morning
European Model Friday Morning

Both do have snow returning to the region later Friday into Friday evening. At least for a time. There could be a mix in there for a time as well.

GFS Model Friday Evening

Either way high temps will only be in the 30s. It’s even likely that we’ll stay in the low-mid 30s Friday. So that would be cold enough to allow for the snow to stick.

After that point the models are split. The GFS and the Euro show different scenarios. It’s kind of a mess actually. Even the ensembles disagree. Let’s just say for now that both show some precipitation on Saturday at different times and in different forms. If the European model is on to something, then we may be in for quite a bit of snow in the region. Really, even the GFS has a decent amount. It could be up to several inches over (parts) of the region. We’ll see. It’s still early, and the forecast will likely change some more.

In the meantime… here are some of the forecast totals from the models up through Friday night.

Snow Forecast (GFS Model)
Snow Forecast (European Model)

Keep in mind that some of the initial snow would melt. So that would take away a little bit of the snow totals.

I wouldn’t go out and buy tons of bread and milk just yet. However, this will be the first chance for accumulating snow in the metro area — at least for more than five minutes. I’d say that there’s a pretty good shot at some snow between Thursday and Saturday. So you may want to make sure your snow shovels and salt are in good shape. Keep checking back for updates on this.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler