Over the next couple of days, we’ll see some cooler temperatures than we have recently thanks to extra cloud cover and rain chances.

As of Sunday morning, a stalled frontal boundary is located to our northwest. This will lead to some rain chances – mainly in central VA as we go through Sunday. In the afternoon, an isolated shower,storm or two could occur across Eastern VA and NE NC.

Monday this front will be centered more over our region. This will result in increased rain chance. Some of the rain could be heavy, leading to isolated flooding. Notice on the map below some spots could see 2-3″ while other spots (thanks to the scattered nature of the rain) see lower amounts. It’s these higher totals in a few spots I’m worried about for the flooding potential. This model has it over the Peninsula, but it could be somewhere else. Don’t focus so much on the exact location. For kids heading back to school, plan on breaking out your rain gear!

In the tropics, we have Hurricane Franklin now which is expected to become a powerful category 4 hurricane over the next few days. This system will pass hundreds of miles off our coastline, but we will see increased swells and rip currents from it.

Of more concern to the United States is Tropical Depression 10. As of Sunday morning, the system is slowly meandering around the Yucatan Peninsula. While the system does not look like much now, most models suggest that TD 10 will quickly strengthen over the next few days and become a powerful hurricane as it approaches Florida by mid week. The National Hurricane Center forecast track currently has a category 1, but in their morning discussion it was mentioned that the intensity forecast may be too low.

The official NHC track brings it towards Florida Wednesday morning. From there, it turns northeast, heading towards SC/NC as we approach Thursday. On this track, the rain would likely impact our area starting Thu into Thu night. If the storm stays further south, we could see lower rain chances in Hampton Roads than in northeast NC/OBX.

The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly several missions into TD 10 this morning and afternoon which should result in better analysis of the storm and the environment around it. I’ll be sharing info on the storm on Twitter through the day.

Hope you have a great Sunday!

Meteorologist Ricky Matthews

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