Blog: A Few Showers Today. Bigger Rain Arrives This Weekend.


Between yesterday and last night there were a few showers and sprinkles in the area. I think Norfolk International Airport had 2 hundredths of an inch. That’s 0.02″. There were a few areas that had a nice/brief light rain in the last 18 hours, but even then it didn’t add up to much. Today will be about the same, but some bigger areas of rain will move in this weekend.

Today we have high pressure to the north. There are 2 areas of low pressure to our south. One is over a land along a stationary front. The other one (offshore) is slowly moving north towards the front.

Regional Weather Map

We’ll have a lot of clouds today with a few peeks of sun. There will be some isolated to scattered showers, but there won’t be much. The breeze will stay out out of the northeast at 8-12mph. So high temps will only be in the mid 70s. It will be muggy, but hopefully the breeze will help a bit.

Dew Points

Tomorrow we’ll have lots of clouds through the day. I think the offshore low will move east, and the second (more western) low will move north/northeast. It’s possible that the two will merge into a broad/weak low. Either way the effect will be the same. They will push a lot of moisture up north of the front. We’ll have an increase in rain showers through the day.

Future Trak Saturday Afternoon

The wind will pick up out of the northeast. It will run at 10-15mph with gusts up to 25mph. Especially near the shore. High temps will be in the low-mid 70s. The rain will become widespread by tomorrow night.

Future Trak Saturday Night

Heavy rain will be possible in a few locations with it more likely to the south. Rain showers will continue into Sunday morning. Then they should taper off in the afternoon. The models disagree on how soon the showers taper off. Our model keeps them going for a while.

Future Trak (Sunday Afternoon)

However, some others dry us out a bit sooner. So stay tuned for updates on that.

The models also vary on how much rain we’ll get. The Euro has been too wet lately. So I’m discounting that one. The GFS is too light. However, all of the other models are showing a decent amount of rain between tomorrow and Sunday.

Rainfall Forecast (4 Models)

I like our Future Trak models’ forecast. I think it’s reasonable though it may be a bit high over the Outer Banks.

Future Trak (Rainfall Accumulation through Sunday AM)

That would equate to about a half inch to an inch-and-a-half of rainfall. It could rain about 1-2″ over parts of northeast North Carolina.

The strong northeast breeze could produce some nuisance to minor tidal flooding this weekend, but I don’t think there will be any big problems from it.

The offshore low that I’ve been talking about is the only thing we are tracking in the Atlantic. It has a minimal chance of becoming tropical or subtropical since it will interact with the front.

Tropical Satellite

Recently, they have had some flooding over parts of the southeast. Heavy rain produced some major flooding over parts of Alabama a couple of days ago.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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