Blog: A Few Rain Chances … Just A Few.


Seems like it was just a couple of months ago when we had flood or flash flood warnings every week. Now it’s getting to where we are having trouble even buying a raindrop. There hasn’t been any rain for the last 10 days, and the last time we had measurable rainfall was September 23.

Rainfall Last 10 Days (Norfolk Climate Site)

Luckily, we will see some rain over the next few days. (Emphasis on Some!) There is a cool front to our north and west.

Regional Weather Map

It is steadily pushing closer to our area, but it is slow moving. So we are going to be unseasonably warm and humid again today with high temps in the lower 80s.

Forecast Temps Today

We’ll have a mix of sun and clouds with a few rain showers later today. I’ve got the chance at 30% for the afternoon into the early evening. So showers will be pretty hit-or-miss. Rain amounts should be light. I’m thinking a tenth of an inch or less. Tomorrow the front will enter the area. It will cool us down to the mid 70s, and the humidity may drop slightly. However, that drop in humidity will lower our rain chances. So I’ve only got a 20% chance for Wednesday.

The outlook for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday look about the same. A mix of sun and clouds, a few possible showers, and highs in the 70s. The chance of rain is between 20-30%. However, that part of the forecast will partly depend on an area of low pressure that will form offshore. This low has a minor chance of becoming tropical within the next 3-5 days.

Tropical Satellite

The GFS model keeps the low offshore Friday and Saturday. It has is far enough away that it also keeps most of the rain out to sea. However, I do think some moisture will come in off of the ocean. So we’ll see.

GFS Model Saturday

The European model has more rain for Saturday, but at this point we’ll have to wait another day to get a better forecast for the weekend.

Hurricane Sam has transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone. It has wrapped in some cooler air, and it is become more of a broad system. It is now more of a nor’easter-type storm. However, it will move northeast with some strong wind and heavy rain. It will actually affect Iceland in a few days.

Track Of Sam

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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