Blog: A Bit Wet For Back To School. Tracking 2 Tropical Storms.


Back To School

Some kids have already headed back to school this season, but the bulk of the kids in our area are heading back today. I say “back”, but many will do virtual learning. There are some schools that are physically going back. Also, many schools will have breaks between lessons. So here is the forecast for any kids that need/want to head outside:

Remote Forecast

Unfortunately, there will be some scattered rain showers in the region. We have high pressure to the northeast, but a stationary front is closer to the area. It is just to our south.

Regional Weather Map

We also have a LOT of humidity pushing back onto the east coast. Local dew points have risen from the 50s and 60s a couple of days ago to the mid 70s today. This high humidity is going to stick around for a few days.

Muggy Meter

The extra humidity is creating a lot of clouds. There is enough of a push too that there will be some scattered rain showers. Our Future Trak model is showing a lot of rain actually. I think it’s a little overdone, but I’ll show it’s latest forecast:

Future Trak (This Afternoon)

Why do I think it’s overdone? Well, some of the other models don’t show as much coverage. Though they do show some showers. Plus, there isn’t a big weather feature coming in. It’s basically just a moisture push. The stationary front is close enough to create some lower pressure. So we will have scattered rain showers, but it will be far from a washout. High temps will be in the low-mid 80s. We’ll have a nice northeast breeze at 10-15mph.

Tomorrow the front will bump north a bit. So we will have a higher chance for rain. The humidity will be even thicker. So we’ll be cloudy with on-and-off rain showers through the day. Rain may be heavy at times.

Future Trak (Tomorrow)

High temps will be closer to 80 degrees, but it will feel very muggy. At least there will be a breeze again out of the northeast.

There may be an area of low pressure moving in from the ocean on Thursday. It could potentially be a tropical system, but regardless it will bring in a lot of tropical humidity. So more rain is expected Thursday into Friday. High temps will be in the 80s. Hopefully, the humidity will drop a little on Saturday. I’ve got a little lower chance for rain on that day.

The tropics are busy, and I think this is only going to get worse.

There is a tropical disturbance south/southwest of Bermuda. It is the low that I referenced a moment ago.

Tropical Satellite

It is forecast to move to the west/northwest over the next couple of days. It has a low-moderate chance of formation. But remember…This doesn’t have to become a tropical depression to bring us more rain later this week.

Other than that there are 2 tropical storms in the Atlantic right now. We have tropical storm Paulette in the middle of the Atlantic. It is moving to the northwest. It is expected to stay a tropical storm over the next few days as the wind shear stays moderate.

Track Of Paulette

This will track to the west/northwest through Sunday. After that point it will probably turn a little more to the north. That would keep it out to sea, but that is not set in stone. So we’ll have to watch it closely. I’ll show the forecast models tomorrow as it gets closer.

Farther east lies tropical storm Rene. This one is near the Cabo Verde islands and is moving west. It is forecast to turn more to the northwest in a couple of days and become a hurricane.

Track Of Rene

This storm IS expected to stay out to sea. However, between the 2 tropical storms and the other possible system the ocean waves are going to build. We may see some high waves along the east coast late this week. It could be great news for surfers, but bad news for beach goers.

Another system may come off of Africa and form over the next 3-5 days as well. So there could be 3 named storms over the Atlantic at the same time. I forecast that to happen a while back. Stay tuned for updates!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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